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Seeking a new paradigm for analyzing poverty impact of climate change after Rio+20
K. S. Imai
In: M. Kennet and N. Kamaruddin, editor(s). The Greening of China and Asia. Reading : the Green Economic Institute (GEI); 2012..
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Abstract
The standard method commonly used among economists to analyse the economic impact of climate change is to use the past data, such as, temperature, GDP per capita, consumption, capital, wages, or poverty rate to predict the future values. This has been justified on the grounds that (i) each factor (e.g. GDP per capita) is persistent over time, (ii) interrelationships (e.g. temperature and GDP per capita; GDP per capita and poverty) are not changed and (iii) risk factors (e.g. the probability of floods, temperature rises) will be observed in the future as in the past. “The past to the present” approach works well in predicting the near future, but this may not be suitable for the long-term prediction because of the unpredictability of climate change. This is particularly important for most of the countries in Asia as a large section of people are vulnerable to weather shocks or poverty. Economists, researchers as well as policy-makers may need to shift their paradigm to “the future to the present” approach whereby the present policy and actions are guided by the future state and the fully integrated model to connect the future and the present.
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- GEI http://www.greeneconomics.org.uk/key30.html