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Troubling futures: Scenarios and scenario planning for organizational decision making
Healey, M. P. and Hodgkinson, G. P
In: G. P. Hodgkinson, and W. H. Starbuck, editor(s). The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press; 2008. p. 565-585.
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Abstract
Introduction – Scenarios as Cognitive Devices – Breaking the Shackles: Scenarios and Cognitive Inertia – Basic Effects of Scenarios on Judgments and Decisions – Effects of Scenarios on Uncertainty and Confidence – Scenarios Can Anchor and Restrict Thinking – The Role of Scenarios in Attenuating and Exacerbating Biases – The Problem with Incredible Futures: The Plausibility Paradox – Blowing Hot and Cold: Affective Dimensions of Scenario Planning – Summary and Conclusions
Keyword(s)
Decision making; Forecasting; Futures; Mental simulation; Strategic cognition; Strategic planning; Uncertainty
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- Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/oso/public/content/oho_business/9780199290468/toc.html
- Published to Oxford Handbooks Online: September 2009